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Home / Publicações / Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)

Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon)

  • Autores: Diana M Hendrickx, João Dinis Sousa, Pieter J K Libin, Wim Delva, Jori Liesenborgs, Niel Hens, Viktor Müller, Anne-Mieke Vandamme
  • Ano de Publicação: 2021
  • Journal: Scientific Reports, 11, art 14696
  • Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94289-z

ABSTRACT

Model comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models implemented by two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a heterosexual population with Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2). For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified basic model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaoundé-Cameroon were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. These differences in predictions of an intervention were also observed for two models that agreed in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in the absence of that intervention. Without additional data, it is impossible to determine which of these two models is the most reliable. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.

KEYWORDS

Herpes simplex; virus; HSV-2; HIV infections; Infectious diseases; virology; Cameroon.

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About GHTM

GHTM is a R&D Center that brings together researchers from IHMT with a track record in Tropical Medicine and International/Global Health. It aims at strengthening Portugal's role as a leading partner in the development and implementation of a global health research agenda. Our evidence-based interventions contribute to the promotion of equity in health and to improve the health of populations.

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