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Home / Publicações / Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models

Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models

  • Autores: Sandra Oliveira, Jorge Rocha, Carla A. Sousa, César Capinha
  • Ano de Publicação: 2021
  • Journal: Scientific Reports, vol 11, art 9916
  • Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89096-5

ABSTRACT

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.

KEYWORDS

Ecological epidemiology; Ecology; Infectious diseases; Risk factors.

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About GHTM

GHTM is a R&D Center that brings together researchers from IHMT with a track record in Tropical Medicine and International/Global Health. It aims at strengthening Portugal's role as a leading partner in the development and implementation of a global health research agenda. Our evidence-based interventions contribute to the promotion of equity in health and to improve the health of populations.

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