GHTM

Global Health and Tropical Medicine

  • GHTM
    • Vision
    • Mission
    • Governance
    • Scientific Advisory Board
  • News
    • Outreach
    • Events
      • GHTM Sessions
      • Workshops
    • Articles
    • Jobs
  • Research
    • Cross-cutting issues
      • Global Pathogen Dispersion and Population Mobility
      • Drug Discovery and Drug Resistance
      • Diagnostics
      • Public Health Information
      • Fair Research Partnerships
    • Research Groups
      • PPS – Population health, policies and services
      • THOP – TB, HIV and opportunistic diseases and pathogens
      • VBD – Vector borne diseases and pathogens
      • IHC – Individual health care
    • Research in numbers
      • 2020
      • 2019
      • 2018
      • 2017
    • Projects
      • Ongoing Projects
    • Members
      • Population health, policies and services
        • PPS PhD members
        • PPS non PhD members
      • TB, HIV and opportunistic diseases and pathogens
        • THOP PhD members
        • THOP non PhD members
      • Vector-borne diseases and pathogens
        • VBD PhD members
        • VBD non PhD members
      • Individual Health Care
        • IHC PhD members
        • IHC non PhD members
      • Technical / administrative support
  • Publications
  • Education
    • Master Theses
    • PhD Theses
  • Services
Home / Publicações / High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains

High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains

  • Autores: de Sousa JD, Lemey P, Müller V, Vandamme AM
  • Journal: PLoS One
  • Link: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=High+GUD+Incidence+in+the+Early+20(th)+Century+Created+a+Particularly+Permissive+Time+Window+for+the+Origin+and+Initial+Spread+of+Epidemic+HIV+Strains

The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880-1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4-43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We surveyed colonial medical literature reporting incidences of GUD for the relevant regions, concentrating on cities, suffering less reporting biases than rural areas. Coinciding in time with the origin of the major HIV groups, colonial cities showed intense GUD outbreaks with incidences 1.5-2.5 orders of magnitude higher than in mid 20(th) century. We surveyed ethnographic literature, and concluded that male circumcision frequencies were lower in early 20(th) century than nowadays, with low rates correlating spatially with the emergence of HIV groups. We developed computer simulations to model the early spread of HIV-1 group M in Kinshasa before, during and after the estimated origin of the virus, using parameters derived from the colonial literature. These confirmed that the early 20(th) century was particularly permissive for the emergence of HIV by heterosexual transmission. The strongest potential facilitating factor was high GUD levels. Remarkably, the direct effects of city population size and circumcision frequency seemed relatively small. Our results suggest that intense GUD in promiscuous urban communities was the main factor driving HIV emergence. Low circumcision rates may have played a role, probably by their indirect effects on GUD.

Share this:

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)
  • Click to print (Opens in new window)

Events

PhD student from GHTM attended the India|EMBO Lecture Course

Ronise Silva, a PhD student under the Tropical Diseases and Global Health program at the Institute … [Read More...]

Registration for “Python applied to Biomedical Sciences” course is open!

GHTM informs that registration for the introduction course on Python programming language is … [Read More...]

BIOTROP, the biobank of GHTM-IHMT-NOVA, represented at the inauguration of the European headquarters of MIRRI-ERIC

  The Coordinator of the Biotropical Resources biobank (BIOTROP), Ana Paula Arez, and the … [Read More...]

Ciara O’Sullivan visited GHTM-IHMT and strengthened international relationship

  As part of the RESMALDETECT Exploratory Project, the GHTM-IHMT received a visit from Ciara … [Read More...]

Call for PhD Studentships

The Institute of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (IHMT), Universidade Nova de Lisboa (NOVA), through … [Read More...]

IHMT | GHTM – APPLICATIONS ARE OPEN!

IHMT | GHTM - Applications are open for three research vacancies:   One position - PhD … [Read More...]

About GHTM

GHTM is a R&D Center that brings together researchers from IHMT with a track record in Tropical Medicine and International/Global Health. It aims at strengthening Portugal's role as a leading partner in the development and implementation of a global health research agenda. Our evidence-based interventions contribute to the promotion of equity in health and to improve the health of populations.

Contacts

Rua da Junqueira, 100
1349-008 Lisboa
Portugal
+351 213 652 600
+351 213 632 105

  • Facebook
  • YouTube

Subscribe Newsletter

  • How to get to GHTM/IHMT
  • GHTM Sessions
  • Research Groups
  • Cross-cutting issues
© Copyright 2023 IHMT-UNL Todos os Direitos Reservados.
  • Universidade Nova de Lisboa
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

    Project UID/Multi/04413/2013