GHTM

Global Health and Tropical Medicine

  • GHTM
    • About GHTM
    • Governance
    • Impact
    • Members
      • Population health, policies and services
        • PPS PhD members
        • PPS non PhD members
      • TB, HIV and opportunistic diseases and pathogens
        • THOP PhD members
        • THOP non PhD members
      • Vector-borne diseases
        • VBD PhD members
        • VBD non PhD members
      • Individual Health Care
        • IHC PhD members
        • IHC non PhD members
      • Tech & Admin support
    • Scientific Advisory Board
  • Research
    • Cross-cutting issues
      • Global Pathogen Dispersion and Population Mobility
      • Drug Discovery and Drug Resistance
      • Diagnostics
      • Public Health Information
      • Fair Research Partnerships
    • Research Groups
      • PPS – Population health, policies and services
      • THOP – TB, HIV and opportunistic diseases and pathogens
      • VBD – Vector borne diseases
      • IHC – Individual health care
    • Research in numbers
      • 2023
      • 2022
      • 2021
      • 2020
      • 2019
      • 2018
      • 2017
    • Projects
      • Ongoing Projects
      • Completed Projects
  • Outreach
    • Events
    • News
    • Policy Support & Community Outreach
  • Publications
    • 2024
    • 2023
    • 2022
    • 2021
    • 2020
    • 2019
    • 2018
    • 2017
    • 2016
    • 2015
  • Capacity Building
    • Education
      • Master Theses
      • PhD Theses
    • International
  • Infrastructures
  • Networks & Partnerships
  • Reports
    • GHTM
    • Scientific Advisory Board
    • FCT
Home / Publications / COVID-19: Nothing is normal in this pandemic

COVID-19: Nothing is normal in this pandemic

  • Authors: Luzia Gonçalves, Maria Antónia Amaral Turkman, Carlos Geraldes, Tiago A Marques, Lisete Sousa
  • Publication Year: 2021
  • Journal: Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, 11(2), pp 146 - 149
  • Link: https://doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001

ABSTRACT

This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a “normal epidemic curve” and also to a “log-normal curve/distribution”. For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the “one-size-fits-all solution”. Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions.

KEYWORDS

Epidemic curve; normal distribution; log-normal distribution; Gaussian curve; COVID-19.

Share this:

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window) Pinterest
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window) WhatsApp
  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print

About GHTM

GHTM is a R&D Unit that brings together researchers with a track record in Tropical Medicine and International & Global Health. It aims at strengthening Portugal's role as a leading partner in the development and implementation of a global health research agenda. Our evidence-based interventions contribute to the promotion of equity in health and to improve the health of populations.

Contacts

Rua da Junqueira, 100
1349-008 Lisboa
Portugal

+351 213 652 600

  • E-mail
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Map

  • Events
  • Research Groups
  • Cross-cutting issues
© Copyright 2025 IHMT-UNL All Rights Reserved.
  • Universidade Nova de Lisboa
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

    UIDB/04413/2020
    UIDP/04413/2020

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok